Altamar Software, fictional company
Board edition, October 2026
Prepared by GVCODEX
Altamar grew above plan, with less room for error
ARR grew 2.8% in October and beat its target, but losing a large account cut net revenue retention from 103.7% to 101.6%
Altamar closed October with US$5.07M in ARR, US$103K above target and 48% higher than a year ago. Mid-market accounts drove the month: Mid-market US added US$122K and Mid-market Mexico US$104K, after the Monterrey logistics trade show. Customers reached 315, 17 more than planned.
The rest of the story is less comfortable. A large account did not renew after merging with another group: Large accounts subtracted US$99K of ARR and pushed monthly churn to 2.4%, from 0.3% in September. Net revenue retention ended at 101.6%, 3.4 pp below target. Gross margin fell to 77.7% because the company paid two cloud providers at once in September and October during a migration that ends in January.
November ARR is expected between US$5.17M and US$5.39M, above the US$5.13M target. What comes next hinges on two renewals: the two large accounts flagged red, whose usage fell this quarter, renew in December and carry US$164K of ARR at risk. The December forecast, US$5.46M, beats the US$5.30M target, but it knows nothing about those two renewals.
Four of seven metrics meet their target; net revenue retention, gross margin and monthly churn do not
October 2026 against the target, the previous month, the same month last year and the expected range.
Mid-market US and Mexico added US$122K and US$104K; Large accounts subtracted US$99K
ARR went from US$4.93M in September to US$5.07M in October: US$140K more in one month, with Mexico as the region that contributed the most.
What it is worth
November is on track to beat the US$5.13M target; December hinges on two renewals
Active alerts
What to do
Forecast of ARR for November 2026: between US$5.17M and US$5.39M (80%). Average 3-month forecast error, measured on past data: 1.6%. The vertical axis starts at US$1.50M. This edition is not an audit, a certification or financial advice; forecasts are estimates with a range.